Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Strategies for Pandemic Influenza Outbreaks by Dr. Dayna Martinez
~Date: Friday, March 21, 2014
Time: 10:00am to 11:00am (Refreshments from 9:30am to 10:00am)
Location: 435 Curry Student Center
Abstract: Influenza pandemics have occurred an average of three times every century since the 1500s. There is an ominous expectation that a severe pandemic could occur and infect between 20 to 47 million people in the U.S. alone with an economic impact ranging between $71.3 and $166.5 billion. Pharmaceutical interventions (PHIs) with vaccines and antivirals are the most effective methods of mitigation; however, availability of PHIs is unlikely to be adequate during the early stages of a pandemic. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as quarantine and school closure, offer a viable alternative and may be the only intervention strategy for many undeveloped countries. We developed effective NPI strategies and in this presentation we demonstrate the efficacy of these strategies on large-scale simulated outbreaks involving three different scenarios of virus transmissibility. We modeled pandemic influenza outbreaks using an agent-based simulation approach. The model incorporates detailed population demographics and dynamics, variety of mixing groups and their contact processes, infection transmission process, and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Using a statistical experimental design approach we examine the influence of characteristic parameters of virus epidemiology, social behavior, and non-pharmaceutical interventions on various measures of pandemic impact such as total number of infections, deaths and contacts. The experimental design approach also yields the knowledge of the extent of interactions among the above parameters. The results show that significant improvements in the NPI based pandemic mitigation approaches can be attained by the strategies derived from our methodology.
Bio: Dayna Lee Martínez completed her Ph.D. in the Industrial and Management Systems Engineering Department of the University of South Florida (USF) in summer 2012. She received her B.S. in Industrial Engineering from the University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez Campus in 2006 and her M.E. in Industrial Engineering from the University of South Florida in 2008. She is currently a Postdoctoral Research Associate for the Healthcare Systems Engineering Institute (HSyE) at Northeastern University in Boston, MA. Previously, Dayna was a Veterans Engineer Resource Center (VERC) Fellow working at the James A. Hailey Veterans Hospital in Tampa, FL.
Friday, March 21, 2014 at 10:00am to 11:00am
Curry Student Center, 435